What about the content? It seems that, if one of the manufacturers’ primary concerns for 2006 will be the race to the market for their HD readers -and their chosen standard, because time might be of the essence here- content providers, such as movie giants, have frantically worked to deliver HD-based image and sound, in order to convince consumers of the amazing leap that HD formats represent…
As for Sony (TSE: 6758), this is more than simply proposing new boxes, since the Nippon giant is playing big, on both sides: owning one of the industry cash cows Sony Pictures Home Entertainment (SPHE), they are in the position -quite risky, when there is a major shift - of making both the pipes, and delivering associated contents.
And they will push hard, as witnessed at the Sony keynote speech they delivered at the CES today. CEO Howard Stringer declared "The scale of the transition from analog to HD (high definition) will make the shift from black-and-white to color small by comparison."
He also stressed that the existence of the Sony Music label and movie studio gave them an advantage for the transition to high-def, because it could also deliver the content. One might have equally assumed the contrary, since stakes are higher, too…
Although Blu-ray seemed to have a strong advantage over the HD-DVD, several announcements, especially from the PC industry (Microsoft and HP) have, lately, blurred the picture. In addition, backward compatibility and pricing –HD-DVD seems to be priced much cheaper than Blu-ray- might cause more indecision among consumers. Mr. Stringer, however, has a definitive answer: "It doesn't really matter what the prices are, if you don't have the movies," he said.
Howard Stringer, Sony Corp. CEO, speaking at the CES
Everyone in the movie and music industry will also be of the gathering. Two categories here:
Those who have chosen their side in the format battle between Blu-ray and HD-DVD, Those who support both, a growing party as it seems.Bottom line, there’s a queue at the HD counter… although do not expect miracles, not every “chef d’oeuvre” will stand in your video library in the next six months!
Yet, a number of blockbusters are already sure to be burned in the coming months. “Lord of the Rings”, “King Kong”, “Harry Potter” or “Mission: Impossible” will be among them, 75 in total during H1/2006, up to hundreds more by the end of the year, as it is gossiped among the CES 2006 swarm. They want all this new stuff to gain quick “popularity”.
Because it holds the –not so enviable- position we described, Sony has this aggressive approach, with plans to introduce 20+ “Blu-rayed” titles, such as “Robocop”, “XXX”, or even the imminent Underworld Evolution theatrical programme. “Stargate: Atlantis”, a TV series which has yet to be wrapped up, will be the first ever Blu-ray high-def version of a TV series.
The 50GB Dual-layer Blu-ray, which has been delayed thanks to technical problems, has not been left behind and you will be able to watch the classic “Bridge over the river Kwai”, and “Black Hawk down” soon.
Sony has plans in the gaming as well, using BD Java software (one of the reasons why the quite annoyed HP has announced its support of HD-DVD as well as Blu-ray). SPHE president Ben Feingold has made it clear, though, that the Blu-ray consortium would not change directions. Translation, we will use BD Java, no matter what…
One of the keys for Dual-disc based offer is the enormous -50GB- capacity to stock non-compressed audio, and this results in “The Fifth Element” and “The last Waltz” in the pipe for next summer. Likewise, you’ll be able to see a not-possible-before amount of bonuses that were absent so far, because of the lack of space on old DVDs.
Other Blu-ray supporting studios have made, or will make, announcements this week: 20th Century Fox with “Fantastic Four” and “Ice Age”, and a total 20+ titles for next summer. Disney will speak later in the week, and Lionsgate will release 10 titles when the first players are in the shops.
Universal is the only studio to support HD-DVD only, and their programmes will be known very soon. Paramount is backing both formats (they are the studio to release Mission: Impossible later this year), but their approach is more cautious: “When we know there’s enough product out there, we will determine that to be a launch and will then put out product,” Paramount president Tom Lesinski said.
Old Paramount is more cautious in its approach
Anyhow, the battle, this time on its content aspect, has started on the ground, with options more open than one might have thought a couple of months ago only. Let’s summarize the situation…
Several studio CEOs, and a number of analysts, agree that:
The new format(s) is (are) more a “replacement” than the DVD was, because DVDs represented a very significant, if not dramatic, change from the VHS cassettes. High-Def requires that you change BOTH your TV and your reader, which comes at a significantly higher price than the connection, on your colour TV, of a DVD. Many of us have recently purchased a flamboyant flat screen TV, sometimes at a very high cost. Will they throw them to buy a HD-ready device? The pricing of discs is unclear yet, but the pricing strategy of the battling consortium for their readers is decidedly favouring HD-DVD. Forrester Research Ted Schadler analyses that "HD DVD is clearly treating this is a loss leader. For Toshiba, it's less risky to lose money on the players than it is to lose the war altogether. It's now a game of chicken to see who can drop the price the fastest in order to drive adoption faster." The computer world, apart from Apple, has either chosen the HD-DVD (Microsoft, Intel), or both formats (HP).So, the situation could evolve rapidly, should consumers decide that the pricing is the the key factor. Or, as several CEOs emphasized, the evolution to HD will be slower than expected (or hoped), and the price war will be a killer.
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